Column | Does a coup in Niger present an emergency which merits the threat of military action by ECOWAS?

| The threat of military action in Niger by ECOWAS, and the role which The Gambia must play as a member state |

 

By Pa Louis Sambou

 

It is certainly neither an inaccuracy nor an exaggeration to state that the Western part of the African continent which is officially known as West Africa, has had, and still experience crises which by any measure, are of far greater magnitude and scope than a coup in the Republic of Niger. Boko Haram terrorists kidnapping innocent schoolgirls, ISIS – inspired jihadist terrorising communities and conquering swathes of territory in the Sahel regions of West Africa, Alpha Condé, Alasan Outtara, corrupting their republican Constitutions, and Mackey Sall corrupting Senegalese democracy to prolong their respective times in office but to name a few of the crises which faced and still face the region, albeit without any serious response from the regional bloc, ECOWAS. However, ECOWAS officialdom wish to have us believe that a bloodless mutiny in Niger which evolved into a military coup, is the gravest West African emergency of our time. Since when is a coup any crisis in West Africa anyway? 

 

Unfortunately, whether cronyism, corruption or coups, although undesirable, the region’s circumstances are such that none of these is as shocking as would otherwise be the case. In fact, it is entirely accurate to venture that, soldiers plotting coups in the name of ‘salvaging the people’ is as normal a day in the office in the career of most soldiers, as is politicians plotting corrupt schemes against their people until they’re eventually ousted through a coup. So let’s be brutally honest here, the tragedy is, cronyism, corruption and coups in West Africa are three problematic phenomena which are so regular, unfortunately, none constitute an extraordinary occurrence anymore. 

 

Notwithstanding all said thus far, if you’re a West African President, successful coup number four in three years will certainly keep you awake at night and understandably so. But such does not elevate this perception of insecurity into an emergency which merits what could only be construed as an overzealous if not a premature seven – days ultimatum by ECOWAS and threat of military intervention in Niger.

 

The condemnation of the coup in Niger by the regional bloc, is something which merits commendation. But that is as far as any responsible observer’s support ought to go, because the bloc’s threats of military intervention is with all due respect extremely ill-advised in view of what is at stake. Let’s be absolutely clear what we have here: there appears to be no sign of a split in the Niger military, there appears to be no sign of formidable opposition to the coup from among the wider population. So, clearly, any intervening troops are more likely to have lethal hostility visited upon them from even among the civilian population, than being greeted with flowers and kisses. Now, in the absence of any groundswell opposition to the Junta, from both within the military and the civilian population, even if an ECOWAS intervention were to successfully achieve the reinstatement of the deposed democratically elected President Bazoum, realistically speaking, they’ll need to disband what remains of the Military to create a new Military edifice as well as a breed of ‘new loyal citizens’ or in the alternative stay put for an indeterminate period, to deter a subsequent civil uprising. The former is realistically unachievable, and the latter so time consuming and expensive, it is practically unviable. And this is an ECOWAS military intervention’s best case scenario under the circumstances, based on open source information.

 

It is a common saying within military circles that ‘no plan survives contact with the enemy’.Unless the bloc’s threat relies upon some marvellous genius plan which is capable of dispelling the aforesaid cautionary military adage which is seldom proven wrong, if followed through, it’ll simply invite the opening up of a new frontline on the African continent in the new ‘cold’ war between the West and its Eastern adversaries. Just like was the case in Angola from the mid 1970s, but covering much larger territory and involving multiple countries across the Sahel on this occasion. Effectively, in the unlikely event the bloc acts on its threat, then ECOWAS would have declared war on itself and against the interests of its member states and citizens, and which will significantly intensify irregular migration flows across the Mediterranean into Europe risking much more lives and exposing North Africa and southern Europe to the risk of unprecedented instability. Besides, what’s there to guarantee that such international armed conflict in the Sahel will not spread further north or south?

 

Furthermore, in view of the fiery reaction to ECOWAS’s threat of military action from the Niger military junta, the juntas in Mali, and Burkina-faso, and the opposition from allies of the junta such as Algeria which borders Niger in the north, and junta-led Guinea, the circumstances present a potent powder keg for full blown international armed conflict if caution is not taken. Meanwhile, the fight against the jihadists in the region i.e regional security slides down the priority scale, and the jihadist groups will no doubt take advantage of any conflict between ‘coup belt’ countries and the rest of ECOWAS to shore up any territorial gains and indeed wreak more havoc across the Sahel and beyond. So without any hesitation, the bloc’s reaction to the coup is overblown – the objective facts would suggest that the coup, although highly undesirable, it does not present a regional emergency which necessitate the threat of military action or even warrant any military action. Well, not yet anyway. 

 

I must add that unlike most other observers who oppose military action, I am not necessarily opposed to it under all circumstances. If there is material change in circumstances so that the use of force by ECOWAS in Niger is merited, then my position may change. And in such an instance, subject to Parliamentary approval, The Gambia should absolutely contribute its fair share as an ECOWAS member state. Membership of the bloc comes with obligations, and unless Parliamentary wisdom directs otherwise, ‘good war’ or not, one should expect The Gambia to discharge its obligations as a member of the club. We must honour our international treaty obligations no matter how tough the going gets. . 

 

Ideally, and in principle, an ECOWAS anti-coup policy backed by potent and sustainable enforcement mechanisms, is not entirely unwarranted. But the issue most have with such a policy is that its narrow definition of what constitutes a ‘coup’ ignores ‘constitutional coups’ by sitting Presidents to prolong their terms in office beyond what is constitutionally permitted etc. So, as well as walking back the premature threats of military action in Niger, ECOWAS must also seriously reconsider extending its policy on coups, so that ‘constitutional coups’ are for all intents and purposes treated on par with military coups. And long term, if the anti-coup policy is to merit and command popular support, in addition to combating all coups, it has to also firmly combat the causes of coups. 

About the Author

The author is regular columnist contributor to this medium. 

Twitter handle: @That_Pragmatist 

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